November 5, 2019 United States: $11 Trillion U.S. Mortgage Market Has a Shadowy New Player “U.S. financial regulators led by the Treasury’s Steven Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell have been put on notice about the risk of an economically damaging cash crunch in the $11 trillion home mortgage market. Behind the concern aired
November 4, 2019 United States: Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course “An enduring U.S. expansion puts President Donald Trump on course to win re-election in 2020, according to economic models with a track record of predicting who wins the White House. The forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s
November 1, 2019 United States: U.S. Hiring Resilient With 128,000 Gain Amid Strike, Census “U.S. hiring was unexpectedly resilient in October and prior months saw sharp upward revisions, validating the Federal Reserve’s signal of a pause from interest-rate cuts and indicating consumers will extend the record-long expansion despite weak business investment and trade tensions. Stock
October 31, 2019 United States: U.S. Consumer Spending, Jobless Claims Signal Caution on Economy “U.S. consumer spending trailed forecasts in September while weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose more than projected, offering a note of caution on the economy as Federal Reserve policy makers signal a pause from interest-rate cuts. Consumer outlays for goods and
October 30, 2019 United States: U.S. Economy Holds Up With 1.9% Growth on Consumer Strength “A resilient American consumer helped the U.S. economy expand more than forecast in the third quarter, assuaging concerns for now of a more pervasive slowdown tied to weakening business investment and faltering export markets. Gross domestic product increased at a
October 29, 2019 United States: America’s Middle Class Is Addicted to a New Kind of Credit “The payday-loan business was in decline. Regulators were circling, storefronts were vanishing and investors were abandoning the industry’s biggest companies en masse. And yet today, just a few years later, many of the same subprime lenders that specialized in the debt are
October 28, 2019 United States: Fed, Consumers Turn a Deaf Ear to Wall Street’s Recession Siren “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s disagreement with Wall Street over recession risks is backed up by data showing that much of the talk is concentrated in a few industries with big megaphones -- manufacturing and banking. Powell has repeatedly said that
October 25, 2019 United States: Fed Seen Cutting Rates Next Week and Then Hitting Pause Button “Federal Reserve officials will signal they’re likely to take a break from cutting interest rates after lowering them again next week, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In an Oct. 21-24 poll of 40 economists, 85% said they
October 24, 2019 United States: U.S. Business-Equipment Orders Drop Second Month, Miss Forecast “Orders placed with U.S. factories for business equipment declined for a second straight month and shipments matched the biggest drop since 2016, the latest sign the dimmer global growth outlook and trade tensions with China are weighing on companies.The proxy for business
October 23, 2019 United States: Trump Move Could Spark Another Exodus of U.S. Jobs Researchers “Donald Trump has called its work “phony.” His Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney warned that President Obama was “manipulating” its numbers. Economic adviser Larry Kudlow termed one of its reports “very fluky.” Is it a House oversight committee? A Democratic think tank? No,
